Playoff Odds
AFL · 2026 · after Week 9 · 5 weeks left
Chance to make the playoffs
American League
Odds are an estimate from 10,000 simulated seasons.
National League
Odds are an estimate from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Week 10: the games that move it most
- Drunk Indians vs Fullybaked Playoff odds DRUNK 60% now, 73% with a win, 41% with a loss BAKD 33% now, 52% with a win, 20% with a loss
- No Soup For You vs Badd Boys Playoff odds SOUP 39% now, 49% with a win, 22% with a loss BADD <1% now, <1% with a win, 0% with a loss
- Swiftie 4 Life vs Jewpacabra Playoff odds SWIFTY 88% now, 94% with a win, 76% with a loss JEW 19% now, 33% with a win, 12% with a loss
- Da Dangsters vs Suh girls Playoff odds DANG <1% now, 1% with a win, <1% with a loss SHIT 70% now, 78% with a win, 59% with a loss
- Chatmaster vs Bruin Pegs Me Playoff odds CHAT 1% now, 3% with a win, <1% with a loss PEGME 27% now, 35% with a win, 16% with a loss
How these are figured
We play out the rest of the regular season 10,000 times. Each team scores around its season average (pulled a little toward the league average early on), with the week-to-week swing this league actually has. Every simulated season is seeded the way the league seeds, and the odds are how often each team got in.
Ties are broken with this league's own tiebreakers, in the league's order (head-to-head, division record and the rest). MFL's Power Rank is the one step we can't reproduce, so it's skipped and the next one decides. It's still an estimate of the weeks left, not a guarantee.
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